The (Covid-19) Scream
I sometimes wonder which social science is the best one to analyse particular phenomena, what insights does each give? The UK Conservative Party leadership election in 2019, when Boris Johnson was elected, was one such phenomenon. There was a visible bandwagon effect here, which could probably be explained by economics, sociology and behavioural ecology, amongst others.
So what to make of current times? (UK’s Covid-19 lockdown, as a note for post-event reading.) In the early days of the lockdown, there was a clear sense of national unity/togetherness/humanity. Like many other leaders and governments, at such a time of national crisis Boris Johnson’s and the UK government’s approval ratings improved. (Johnson to 34% and the government to 52%.¹) Perhaps symptomatic of the national mood, a colleague of mine thought Johnson to be the Churchill of our time.
The challenge for what is left of UK’s manufacturing to repurpose to build ventilators was the plucky Dunkirk spirit all over again. But then came the PPE crisis (there was nothing like enough), and the lack of testing compared to nations we consider our peers. (The 100,000 tests a day target that was miraculously met on 30th April, through fudging of definitions² and 40,000 test kits in the post³, and hardly been met since.) After that came the Care Home death crisis, where more people are dying than in hospitals. And the new kid on the block, publication of the report of the 2016 Exercise Cygnus.
The full title of the exercise underscores its importance: ‘Exercise Cygnus Report, Tier One Command Post Exercise, Pandemic Influenza, 18 to 20 October 2016’. The Cygnus conclusions and recommendations are widely reported, and even articles from Conservative Party-friendly news organisations such as the Daily Telegraph⁴ will have given the government huge discomfort.
I’ve read the Cygnus report, it makes you wince. If you listen to radio host Nick Ferrari’s interview with Helen Whately, the government Care Minister, (30th April) and you’ve read the Cygnus report, your wincing should turn to hardcore anger. Ferrari rubbishes Whately’s assertation that the UK was “in a good place”. Whately’s claim was that the UK’s planning preparedness meant it was in this ‘good place’. The Cygnus report said the opposite: “the UK’s preparedness and response, in terms of its plans, policies and capability, is currently not sufficient to cope with the extreme demands of a severe pandemic that will have a nation-wide impact across all sectors.” (Most of the rest of the report makes very grim reading about UK’s preparedness!)
It’s often said that a government’s primary duty is the safety of its citizens. Since 2016, a clear warning was there and little, if anything, done. (The Daily Telegraph headline⁴ reads “Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government”.) Whately was exhibiting denial of the situation, lack of planning, lack of remorse, and lack of telling of the truth.
Slowly, the UK government is being held to account by the press. My speculation is whether the public mood will turn against the government in the near future? (And which social science will explain how the public mood develops, and what the electorate will do politically? Political science’s ‘Rally Round the Flag’ is on it: ‘As people are finally able to move beyond the pandemic, political gravity is bound to kick in: what goes up must come down’.⁶)
Meanwhile, if you’ve read the Cygnus report and listen to government ministers say how well we’re doing (highest Covid-19 death toll in Europe), all you can do is scream.
¹ Daily Express, What is Boris Johnson’s approval rate? Liam Doyle, April 23, 2020. https://tinyurl.com/ybkl9b3l
² Daily Telegraph, How many coronavirus tests are being done in the UK?Dominic Gilbert, May 07, 2020. https://tinyurl.com/y7gvfvcg
³ The Conversation, Coronavirus: four issues that have limited testing in the UK, May 04, 2020. https://tinyurl.com/ybxqg2gp
⁴ Daily Telegraph, Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government. Subtitle: Exercise Cygnus dramatically exposed the gaps in Britain’s pandemic response but its ‘terrifying’ findings have yet to be published. Paul Nuki and Bill Gardner, March 28, 2020. https://tinyurl.com/tqn3283
⁵ LBC, Nick Ferrari’s extraordinary exchange with Care Minister over pandemic test exercise, March 30, 2020. https://tinyurl.com/yad4myth
⁶ The UK in a Changing Europe, Covid-19 and the ‘rally-round-the flag’ effect, Prof. Will Jennings, March 30, 2020. https://tinyurl.com/yc8jjy4y
